In early January, we put subscribers on high alert to a possible high and the start of a multi-month decline. Based on every single labeling we could find of the big 10-month advance off March’s lows, it became clear that the advance was in a very terminal stage with an important high pending. Since then, price has reversed violently lower, taking out support and key levels in the process. This weakness only adds to the setup for continued downside pressure, since again, there is no good way to label the 10-month advance in a way that allows it to continue. Instead, from a larger degree perspective, recent weakness fits as the start of a larger down move that will ultimately correct the 10-month advance before it’s done.
While there is a heavy debate on the topic among Elliotticians, we are confident that the current decline will only correct the recent 10-month advance. Others believe that the current decline is the start of an even bigger down move, one that will retrace the entire 10-month decline and then some as a larger bear market off the 2007 highs plays out. We are receptive to this more bearish concept, but right now, it’s not the best explanation of price movement. It comes down to one very important question: Is the 10-month advance off the March 2009 lows an impulse? If the answer is yes, then the only conclusion is that the current decline will be a correction of the 2009 advance. By every measure, we believe that the big advance was impulsive. Not only does it count out as an impulse, it looks, feels, and smells like an impulse. It was historically quick, one-directional, and strong. That doesn’t sound like a corrective move to me. The good news is that it doesn’t matter too much right now. If the decline is to be a correction as we contend, it will take on overall corrective form as the move progresses. If the decline is the start of something more important, it will prove impulsive. As is, given the clearly impulsive look of the 10-month advance, we anticipate the former. This topic will be visited frequently in the weeks and months ahead.